The demand for long-term care in the European Union is anticipated to surge by 21% by 2070, significantly affecting the population over 50 years old. Proactive policies ensuring the availability of long-term care services are crucial to meet this increasing demand. This forecast was highlighted on European Demography Day, 4 February 2024, by recent studies from various research institutions emphasizing the need to address health and long-term care amidst Europe's ageing population.

The ongoing demographic shift presents both challenges and opportunities, especially regarding the sustainability and adequacy of health and care systems. Long-term care encompasses a range of services and support for individuals who require assistance with daily activities due to illness, disability, or ageing.

Recent research from these institutions offers valuable insights into how demographic changes will impact health and long-term care needs. A recent report indicates that the share of people needing long-term care will rise from 11.6% in 2020 to 14.1% by 2070. This increase represents 21% more individuals aged 50+ requiring long-term care compared to 2020 levels.

Additionally, the European Cancer Information System projects a significant increase in the cancer burden within the EU-27 by 2040, particularly among those aged 65 and older. The number of new cancer cases and related deaths in this older demographic is expected to rise by approximately 31% and 35%, respectively, driven primarily by population ageing.

Despite advances in cancer treatments and healthy ageing initiatives, the growing number of older individuals in the population drives this trend. These findings underscore the critical relationship between demographic changes and long-term care needs, highlighting the necessity for targeted policies and interventions to tackle this growing societal challenge.

The work from these research institutions supports the European Care Strategy, aiming to ensure quality, affordable, and accessible care services across the EU, thereby improving conditions for both care recipients and caregivers, whether professional or informal. Moreover, the research aligns with the European Commission's communication, "Demographic Change in Europe: A Toolbox for Action," and the Council's recommendation on access to affordable, high-quality long-term care. It emphasizes the urgent need to anticipate and address workforce supply imbalances in health and long-term care and to foster a 'longevity society' that values extended lifetimes in older age.

These insights call for a strategic response to ensure the EU's healthcare systems can effectively support an ageing population, ensuring all individuals receive the necessary care and support.